Data Points Nov. 2, 2017

Amazon:
- $160bn in annual revenues. 
- accelerated to sales growth of 34% and forecast 28-38% 
- Fastest pace since 2011. 
- Whole Foods only added $1.3bn; 
- Walmart’s $500bn of will be overtaken in five years at current growth rates
- Cash outflow of $1bn in the past 12 months

Has America Become Less Competitive?

The Economist raised this issue by pointing out that the persistence of profitability has increased for American firms. "Motes" around the company may rise from well-earned technical advantages and superior products, but they could also be signals of monopoly and rent seeking behaviors. The article pointed out the dramatically increased concentration of companies across 900-odd industries, but what I found most convincing was the role of regulation. Mastery of regulation, especially in industries such as finance and healthcare, gives incumbents incredible advantage. 

MRMC on the Atlantic's "Obama Doctrine"

The Atlantic's treatment of Obama's foreign policy explores with depth the troubles and conflicts that the US leader has in prioritizing problems, imposed onto him both by his personal views and by the complexity of today's evolving world order.

What I liked the most from the article was Obama's clinical description of what has been happening in failed states: "You have countries that are failing to provide prosperity and opportunity for their people. You've got a violent, extremist ideology, or ideologies that are turbocharged through social media. you've got countries that have very few civic traditions, so that as autocratic regimes start fraying, the only organizing principles are sectarian"

The quote reminded me of Tocqueville's treatment of the US, in how it has mastered the "science of association," and how the Confucian traditions have been a source of resilience in Asia even after wars devastated many of them. 

New Data Dumpt

Martin Wheatley, head of British FCA, commented that regulating asset managers who are responsible for "maybe 15 percent of liquidity flow" is perverse when the government leaves off-shore vehicles alone.

Pernod Ricard, headed by grandson of founder Ricard and owner of Absolut and Ricard brands, is struggling.

Fosun, after buying Club Med and Cirque du Soleil, bids for Bnaco Novo, the biggest bank in Portugal.

J&J lost the bid for Pharmacyclics -AbbVie took it for $21bn.

Elliott Associates revealed 7.1% stake in Samsung C&T. This will not be easy for the Elliott peeps.

Fuld made a public comeback unrependent and blamed the government for "mandating" its bankruptcy.

The chip-making industry is no longer a growth industry and scale is important for major players like Samsung and Apple. Avago (Singpoare) has acquired US' Broadcom, and we should expect more deals like this from the fabless industry.

Google has already sold 1m of its Google Cardboard, and its JV with GoPro (16-camera device + Google algos) will be interesting.

Hanergy is finally being investigated after its stock price doubled and halved on the same day.

Carved out of RBS in 2010, Worldpay offers payment services for businesses and will go public with $8bn valuation and most likely be marketed as fintech.

A new bacetria has dealt a severe blow to Italian olives. Extra virgins will face pain.

Whole milk powder, the global benchmark, is at its lowest level since reaching $6,000 peak in 2013. Now it's $2,400.

Maersk has ordered 11 new vessels to remain the world's largest container shipping company. With market share of 15% of seaborne freight, the Danish company is a bellwether for global trade. Daewoo won these orders.

Dixons Carphones' merger has proven to be successful.

Data Dump June

Petrobas just issued century bonds with 8.75 yields. With such time horizon, principal repayment is discounted into a few cents. Past issues have come from France's EDF and Mexico in April.

Obama's Iran Attempt

"For the greater good, FDR stuck an alliance with Stalin, Nixon with Mao, Reagan Afghanistan's mujahideen. By these standards, Iran's transgressions are small potatoes" -Edward Luce on the FT#

Big Updates V

- Barclays and RBS are shrinking their  investment bank operations.

- Many Syrian rebels claim that their original cause of felling Assad now looks unrecognizable. 

- Bentley, owned by Volkwagen, showed its first sports car since 1920s

- Univision, largest Spanish Broadcaster in the US, is issuing $1bn in debt.

 - Endo outbid Valeant for Salix, pharma is deal crazy.

Big Updates Part IV

Lloyd Shapley, a Nobel Laureate, is famous for his Gale-Shapley algorithm, which matches couples into "stable" relationships.

AccelorMittal cut net debt by $2bn to prepare for low prices

"Mr. Buffett said that, since he began investing in shares at the age of 11, he had never once bought something on the basis of an analyst recommendation"

"Late night quips have no answer to terrorist states that incinerate people...it is a mark of sanity to be able to laugh at the result" -Edward Luce of FT

Off-shore deepwater rigs experience first decline since 2001-2002 and would recover in 2017. A lot of "mothballing" and "cold-stacking"

GM pulled out of Indonesiain Feb, 2015 due to lack of extensive supplier/dealer network. Indonesia is reolling out a green car scheme that would require qualifying manufacturers to source 80% of their supplies locally by the fifth year.

Nielson, which measures TV viewership, may not be as strong as ComScore in measuring digital ad effectiveness. WPP invested in ComScore, which partners with Google, while Nielson allies with Facebook and Adobe.

"Daley family, where father and son held a firm grip for 43 of the past 60 years. To win elections, the Daleys kept the public sector unions sweet, scheduled elections in sub-zero February, then relied on neighborhood stewards to get out the vote" -Edward Luce of the FT

Great analogies: like herding cats or stapling jelly.

Alibaba and Lending Club have partnered. Lending Club will offer up to $300,000 working capital financing to US businesses that buy from Alibaba.

Alibaba operates China's largest money market fund through Ant Financial. Ant was the first of eight companies granted a license to launch a credit-scoring service, Sesame Credit. Sesame will benefit from Alibaba's data.

Laws in Tokyo restrict sound to 45 decibel (lvl of a library) in residential suburbs. The city is considering making excepttions for kids. 

Big Updates Part II

Intel pays mobile makers to use its chips, calling it "contra-revenue." Despite that, Intel has free cash-flow of $1bn in 2014.

Mongolia is hosting a mass text vote referendum over its Oyu Tolgoi copper mine to solve disputes with Rio Tinto

Private jets evoke "a comsbustible combinatio of moralism and desire" according to Ludovoc Hunter Tilney in a FT column.

Sal Oppenheim reported its first loss in 2007 after WWII.

Big Updates

Michele Ferrero of Ferrero SpA, a EUR 8.1bn company, competing against Nestle, Mondelez and Kraft passed away. He never gave an interview and Ferrero is infamous for being "unbankable"

All this geopolitics is raising stock prices in defense companies such as BAE Systems.

Pay for asset mangers is set to surpass that of investment bankers by 2016

Russian billionaire Mikhail Friedman, through his $29bn investment fund LetterOne Group, is threatening to sue the UK government for intes.

rvening L1's investment into North Sea asset.

Fall in oil prices has increased demand for consulting companies, such as Wood Mackenzie, which is concurrently pursuing an IPO & sale to maximize exit price.

In 2014, Vanguard attracted fifth of industry's net inflows. Pimco was the worst.

Holcim and Cemex are merging, but they must divest some assets.

According to MI5, there are 3,000 SoI (Subject of Interests) under surveillance as possible terrorists.

L1 is chaired by Lord Browne, former BP chief. The company plans to grow through partnership deals and acquisitions.

Google is restructuring its European business into a single entity.

China's Postal Savings is going public, and MS tapped investors for minority stakes. Lukewarm interests.

On Feb. 28th, 2015, John Authers of FT says "the bond market must turn sometime"

Insights from August 19th Paper

"declaring war was understood to be a royal prerogative...derived from the Crown and resided with the prime minister. Then Mr. Blair put Iraq to a House of Commons vote, transforming constitutional convention in one evening...it was Mr. Blair's nod to fractured public opinion on the Iraq question"
- Janan Ganesh on FT commentary

"The lesson [from recent evnts] for non-Americans and especially Europeans is clear. Free-riding on the US military budget can no longer be taken for granted."
- John Plender on FT Commentary

Is long hours a rite of passage? Studies with BCG's and PTO (predictable time-off) and other office cultures provide no conclusions. Some people are segmenters. Some are integrators.

Useful Economists

Steve Tadelis of Berkeley and Florian Zettelmeyer of Northwestern demonstrate that detailed information for used cars actually boosts up sales, probably by boosting their trust and confidence in products.

Tadelis also showed that narrowing choices for consumers can actually boost sales, and his findings are now applied on eBay.

Economists at Google use search terms like "job," "benefits," and "solitaire," that correlate closely with unemployment claims to help policy.

Data Dump Nov. 29th

- Kuwait's Investment Dar is selling its 50% stake in Aston Martin

- Blackrock launches its global infrastructure debt

- Branded bars are being tried in Latin America by brewers like AmBev

- DR Congo's president asks for a chapter 7 U.N. mandate in response to the M23's capture of Goma

- Samsung admits to violations of labor laws in China. Ericsson sues Samsung for IP infringement

- Israel's defense minister Ehud Barak quits.

EU's Two Functions

1. A legal framework to solve problems

2. Waiting room for the people who want to join the Eurozone.

Biting criticisms from Wolfgang Munchau who says that "the marginalization of the EU at the expense of the eurozone also has implications for other policies...by insisiting on an EU budget freeze, Mr. Cameron is ultimately doing the eurozone a favor. By undermining the EU, he provides further incentives for the eurozone to grasp its collective interest. I support him" -FT Commentary

Problem with "Sending Party Pays" Systems

The International Telecommunications Union, which operates under the auspices of the U.N. is holding discussions over how the internet should be regulated, or not regulated. One of the proposals, forwarded by India and Middle Eastern countries and Africa, involves companies like Google and Facebook paying for telecoms networks carrying their traffic. This is problematic, because then the dissemination of information will be selective to profit-yielding ones, and discourage public investment in infrastructure. Fronts, such as securing quality of the internet, can also be used as a disguise for censorship of information.

System of Aportionment Taxation

Taxes are based on what share of a company's total activity took place within a region. The most notable being the "Massachusetts formula," it gives equal weight to sales, payroll, and assets. Applying this standard on a global scale, John Kay argues, is an effective method of taxation that will reduce avoidance.

The Falling Sun

Undergraduate enrollment of Japanese students in US universities has fallen by more than 50$ since 2000. In the last six years, there have been seven prime ministers.

Data Dump Nov.28

- The growth rate in administrators at U.S. universities from 1993 to 2009 is 60% (CAGR 3%).

- BP's $4.5 bn. settlement will be paid out over five years. Criminal fine of $1.26 bn. will be paid out to the Justice Department, National Fish and Wildlife Foundation for cleanup, NAS for research and some to the

- Worldwide M&A deal volume has plunged 53% since 2007, average deal size 25% -to $149mn.

- The time during which India suffered from massive

- The African Union has agreed to send troops to battle Islamist extremists who have taken over northern Mali

- Rance lost its triple A rating from Moody's

- Jeffries is now ownd by Leucadia

- Apple and HTC ended their legal issues by going into a 10-year licensing agreement.

- A period of severe and widespread hunger in India was called a period of "ship-to-mouth" because many depended on the sale of America's surplus grain for sustenance.

The Issue of Chaebols

Facts:

- The top 10 chaebol make up more than half the value of of the 1,779 companies on the Korea Stock Exchange.

- Cross-holdings of subsidiaries make ownership structures opaque.

Case against unwinding them:
- "To outsiders, it may seem like the economy is doing relatively well, but here are people stuck in the cracks of society where chaebol wealth was supposed to trickle down" -Kim Woo Chan, a prof. at Korea University Business School

- The chairman of Hanhwa group killed a man in 2008 by striking him with a steel pipe and received a pardon. Accusations of embezzlement are made against some chaebol owners.

Chaebols' defense:
- Limiting or banning cross-shareholdings would make them vulnerable to foreign takeovers,

Data Dump Nov. 23, 2012

- Beijing prints maps showing the South China Sea, including Taiwan, as belonging to China on its passports.

- Matteo Renzi, currently the mayor of Florence uprooting the dinosaurs of Italy's left "Democratic Part,"uses Fun's We Are Young as the his campaign theme song. "set the world on fire," the song says.

- Autonomy booked products sold at losses as marketing costs.

- Kasab, the last remaining gunman of the 26/11 attack on India in 2008 has been hanged.

- Khamenei called on the parliament not to question Ahmadinejad over the fall of rials.

- Wolfgang Schauble, dubbed "cheerful Sissyphus," tops the FT ranking for finance ministers for the second time.

- Egypt needs $4.3bn from the IMF